EMC forecasts subscribers to top 1 billion by end 2001. Telecomunicaciones :: Smartphone

EMC forecasts subscribers to top 1 billion by end 2001


Fecha Viernes, marzo 01 @ 08:22:24
Tema Telecomunicaciones :: Smartphone


EMC's latest quarterly publication of its five year forecasts to year end 2005 reveals a more positive note for the world's cellular industry than most vendors and members of the investment community have recently put forward. By year end 2001, EMC forecasts world cellular subscriptions to top the one billion mark, up from 722 million at year end 2000.


Whilst acknowledging that cellular subscription growth in Western Europe has been slowing down as indicated by latest operator reports, the remainder of the world continues to grow with the largest growth being seen in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific regions. Western Europe is the only region to have experienced a decline in net adds over the previous year's results for the same period January to June. EMC's subscriber statistics estimate net adds of 125 million in the 1H 2001.

A key part of EMC's latest forecast is the assumption that some markets will grow beyond the traditional saturation point of 100% penetration. In forecasting terms the saturation point is the assumed point to be reached in the future and not necessarily within the forecasted time frame when no more growth is predicted, also known as the top of the s-curve. Forecasting towards a saturation point of 100% when markets are already achieving 75% penetration rates will by definition show growth rates slowing down.

Key assumptions underlying this calculation include:
  • All members of population are assumed to have at least one cellular subscription from the age of five upwards. On the basis that a cellular subscription is voice-centric, the ability to talk is seen as key to a subscription. This assumption does not however exclude the understanding that a cellular subscription may be wholly data centric.
  • Members of the population falling into the economically active population, defined as 15-64 years, are assumed to have the potential for more than one subscription – typically one for personal and one for business usage.
  • The permutations for potential machine-based cellular subscriptions is only limited by the range of appliances and devices available in the home or public environment. EMC assumes that the potential exists for at least one household-orientated cellular-enabled device per household.

EMC assumes the reference to subscriber bases really refers to how many subscriptions are in existence, i.e. traffic and revenue generating accounts. Multi-subscription scenarios are already in existence whereby subscribers have more than one subscription for purposes of tariff arbitrage or distinguishing between personal and business subscriptions. Outside of multi-subscriptions, the recording of 'subscribers' (i.e. active subscriptions reported by operators) will begin to include considerable numbers of new devices containing cellular modules each generating traffic and in turn revenue for the operator.

Forecasted World Totals

Region
YE 2001
YE 2002
YE 2003
YE 2004
YE 2005


Africa
29.0m
48.2m
67.4m
84.5m
101.6m


Americas
98.7m
140.6m
181.3m
214.7m
240.5m


Asia-Pacific
330.9m
444.5m
564.2m
678.2m
780.9m


Europe: Eastern
44.5m
60.3m
75.8m
89.9m
102.3m


Europe: Western
367.2m
494.1m
607.5m
694.4m
754.5m


Middle East
14.9m
20.9m
29.0m
38.6m
48.5m


USA/Canada
139.9m
165.2m
191.6m
216.7m
239.7m


World
1,025.3m
1,373.8m
1,716.8m
2,016.9m
2,268.0m


Source: EMC World Cellular Database; June 2001 forecast based on actual figures to end March 2001

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